Kluge, in Berlin, doesn’t believe that the Kremlin would accept such an arrangement. “Putin thinks he is winning the war,” Kluge said. “He has all the leverage.” A ceasefire would blunt his momentum and allow Ukraine to shore up its defenses. “And once you stop a war it becomes hard to start it again.”

The minerals deal that U.S. President Donald Trump could soon sign with Ukraine may not be the colonial-style asset grab it appears to be. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy can still turn it to his country’s long-term advantage.